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Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.6% | 20 | 9-9-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 10.6% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 49.0% | -0.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 58.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.4% | +3.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.5% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +7.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.0% | 9 | 1-7-1 | 16.7% | 26.9% | 28.3% | -10.0 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.3% | -8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +3.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.5% | +13.9 |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.2% | -4.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |