← 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional

decks
13 (6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
93 44-42-7
overall winrate
51.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1% avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
50.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1343 · median 1344 · range 1074–1518 (13 pilots with an ELO rating)
807 Q1 1171 Q3 1364 1730
46% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 15% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 18.6% 20 9-9-2 50.0% 50.0% 49.1% -0.4
Wind Allies 10.6% 12 5-6-1 45.8% 46.9% 49.0% -0.4
Wind Razorgale 8.0% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 49.5% -0.3
Water Ravishing Mill 7.5% 7 4-3-0 57.1% 54.5% 58.4% +4.2
Fire Aggro 5.5% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 56.4% +3.7
Wind Shadowstrike 5.5% 8 6-2-0 75.0% 66.7% 65.5% +7.5
Water Penguin Mill 5.0% 9 1-7-1 16.7% 26.9% 28.3% -10.0
Fire Exia 4.5% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 39.3% -8.0
Wind Astra Cleric 4.5% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 46.9% -3.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.5% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 54.9% +3.6
Water Astra Cleric 3.5% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 68.5% +13.9
Water Allies 3.0% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 56.1% +4.6
Fire Slimes 2.5% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 44.2% -4.3
Fire Arcane 1.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.4% +19.9
Wind Neos 1.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.3% +3.7
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.5% -16.7
Water Fractal 1.0% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.6% +18.6
Fire Astra Cleric 0.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.4% -2.6
Fire Dawn of Ashes 0.5% 0
Fire Lorraine 0.5% 0
Fire Tera Mage 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.1% +13.0
Fire Umbra Diana 0.5% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.8% -13.2
Water Crux Merlin 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.7
Water Umbra Diana 0.5% 0
Wind Beast 0.5% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.1% -11.0
Wind Crux Mage 0.5% 0
Wind Exia 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.1% +12.9
Wind Neos Tonoris 0.5% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 0.5% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.5% 0
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orb of Sealing +1.00 2 0 0
Fragmented Spirit of Fire +1.00 2 0 0
Under Fire -1.00 0 2 0
Incarnate Majesty +1.00 2 0 0
Gentle Respite +1.00 2 0 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 2 0
Fast Cure -1.00 0 2 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 2 0
Resolute Stand -0.50 0 1 1
Spirit of Fire -0.50 0 1 1
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.50 1 0 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.50 1 0 1
Backup Charger -0.50 0 1 0
Crux Sight +0.50 1 0 1
Cremation Ritual +0.50 1 0 1
Favorable Winds -0.50 0 1 0
Spark Alight +0.50 1 0 1
Reprogram -0.50 0 1 0
Incapacitate -0.50 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +0.50 1 0 1
Chilling Touch -0.50 0 1 0
Refracting Missile +0.50 1 0 0
Heighten Spellcraft +0.50 1 0 1
Tether in Flames -0.50 0 1 0
Focused Flames +0.50 1 0 0
Scavenging Raccoon +0.50 1 0 0
Ignite the Soul -0.50 0 1 0
Mnemonic Charm +0.00 1 1 0
Mystic Purifier +0.00 1 1 0
Honorable Vanguard +0.00 1 1 0
Disintegrate +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/14905/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage